In this video, I commented the Ukraine and Crimea for a TV station. The summary of my interview: The Crimea referendum will create a bad precedent for the whole world, especially for the FSU republics. The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh continues and the Crimea referendum for sure will complicate the situation even more. Russia, on the other hand is the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair and from now on its mediation role can’t be unbiased.
Today, not only the fate of the Ukraine is decided or on the stake, but also that of whole FSU republics. Eastern Partnership (EaP) is also on the stake. None of the countries would risk its territorial integrity by joining EaP. If the territorial integrity of the Ukraine is not ensured and Crimea goes to Russia, then EU and the US are going to have the second hand role for international affairs. Instead Russia would take the lead role. Of course, the Ukraine events will have its consequences on Syria as well.
The US and EU lost the geopolitical fight in 2008, when they failed to defend territorial integrity of Georgia. Now the same mistake happened in the Ukraine.
EU and the US put the Ukraine on the cross-roads to choose which way to go. But only two directions. There was no alternative. That was actually a bolshevistic approach. You are with us or our enemy.
The Ukraine made its decision to go towards the EU and paid sacrifices. But EU fails to protect it. If they failed to protect the Ukrainians, why they so insistently pressurized the Ukraine?
The US and EU should do everything, even a war to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Otherwise, none else would believe in any word a or promise of the mentioned countries and unions. It is not a matter of the Ukraine and FSU, but also the prestige of the US and EU.
Russia, however won’t withdraw. Withdrawal means loosing and no perspective for Eurasian Union. It would make Putin loose its “macho” character. On the same level, the EU loss of Crimea means no perspective for EaP.
Difficult situation and no wise decision is foreseen on the horizon.