What does a Republican or Democrat win mean for Azerbaijan?

Let’s analyze this perspective. 

Azerbaijan views Trump’s past policies as favorable, given his administration’s relatively neutral and just stance during the 2020 Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Unlike other U.S. administrations, Trump did not strongly intervene or side with occupant Armenia, which may have strengthened  Azerbaijan’s international position. 

During Trump’s tenure, the Armenian lobby in the U.S. did not significantly affect his administration’s approach to the Karabakh conflict. 

Trump’s non-interventionist approach to conflicts in the region was seen as aligning with Azerbaijan’s righteous position on the inviolability of any country’s territorial integrity.  

Economic Interests: Trump’s business-oriented foreign policy approach, which often emphasizes energy deals, resonates with Azerbaijan due to its significant oil and gas reserves. Trump’s pro-business stance could benefit the energy-rich country by offering potential partnerships or investment opportunities in the oil sector and encouraging Western companies to invest in Azerbaijani energy infrastructure. We also hope that Trump will foster stronger trade relationships with Azerbaijan.

Geopolitical Concerns: Azerbaijan is right to see Harris as potentially taking a more traditional Democratic approach to foreign policy, which includes double-standard human rights and democracy promotion. As known human rights are universal and can’t be differently applied to countries based on the interests. Harris, representing the Biden administration’s legacy, prioritizes these issues in biased ways that could bring criticism or pressure on Azerbaijan for its internal governance and political system. Due to external pressures, geopolitical concerns, and double standards, Azerbaijan’s political system favors stability and sovereignty over Western-style democracy promotion. I believe that Harris would continue the traditional Democratic approach to our region.

Russia and Iran: Azerbaijan’s strategic position between Russia and Iran means it carefully navigates its relationships with these powerful neighbors. Trump’s tough stance on Iran, including the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, might appeal to Azerbaijan, which often finds itself in a delicate balancing act with Tehran. Azerbaijan might view a Trump victory as a continuation of this pressure on Iran, which could potentially help weaken Iran’s negative stance on the Zangazur corridor. Conversely, Harris may take a more diplomatic approach to Iran, shifting the regional balance in ways that might complicate Azerbaijan’s foreign policy calculations. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan makes all kinds of reasonable efforts to continue the best relationships with neighboring Iran. However the latter can’t tolerate Azerbaijan’s friendly relations with the state of Israel.

Armenian Lobby in the U.S.: A potential concern for Azerbaijan during the Harris administration is the influence of the Armenian diaspora in the U.S. Historically, Democrats have been more sympathetic to Armenian causes, including recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Azerbaijan could fear that Harris might be swayed by these domestic political pressures, potentially leading to a more pro-Armenia stance on issues like peace agreement conditions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In summary, from Azerbaijan’s perspective, a Trump victory could signal a continuation of less interventionist policies, be more business-focused, and potentially benefit Azerbaijan’s strategic goals. A Harris-led administration, on the other hand, might be viewed with more caution due to concerns about increased pressure on double-standard democracy concerns and closer ties to Armenia.

Razi Nurullayev, Azerbaijani MP, chairperson of the National Front Party