Karabakh conflict is likely to be resolved by Azerbaijan’s accession into the CSTO
In the past few months, the issue of the country’s entry into the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has been more actively discussed in Azerbaijan. One of the most consistent supporters of this idea is Razi Nurullayev, a political figure, the head of the international analytical center “Region” and the leader of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan.
Responding to questions from EADaily correspondent, Razi Nurullayev noted that there is nothing surprising in his clear position on this issue. “Azerbaijan should not stand aside from the integration processes in the Eurasian space. We are not so strong a country that can afford an independent policy, being surrounded by such states as Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Even a superpower like the United States has to reckon with realities. It is enough to recall at least the recent government shutdown in America”, he said.
“I considered the policy of our country to be correct and balanced for more than two decades, but now it does not fully justify itself. I see that a clear position and even certainty is expected from Azerbaijan regarding the CSTO and the EAEU. And, as it seems to me, the entry of Azerbaijan into these structures will bring us closer to the member countries of these alliances. For example, Kazakhstan is a friendly country to us. But Astana often cannot clearly express itself in our favor due to the fact that it is necessary to take into account the priorities of other states belonging to the CSTO and the EAEU. Belarus is in the same situation. In this regard, Azerbaijan is losing a lot of things both economically and politically, ”Nurullayev said.
Our interlocutor noted another factor:
“Although Azerbaijan is represented in the EU Eastern Partnership program, it has not signed serious documents with the European Union. I do not believe that such an alliance can take place. Negotiations can go on for years and eventually fail. The European Union has a lot of harsh and specific conditions relating to human rights, fundamental, economic freedoms, democratic transformations. But also the entry of Azerbaijan into the World Trade Organization. Our political elite will not accept these conditions and will stay away from European aid, from their market and from all that they offer. In this case, the country, population, business structures, banks, the market will suffer greatly. And we are also away from the CSTO and the EEU, which means we are losing a lot here too. But at the same time, even if we become a full member of the CSTO and the EEU, this again will not prevent our cooperation with Europe. After all, it did not prevent Armenia … ”.
Earlier, Razi Nurullaev noted in his statements that joining the CSTO would help resolve the Karabakh conflict. What is this confidence based on?
Answering this question, the expert noted that he does not have 100% confidence on this issue.
“But there is also no certainty that it (the Karabakh conflict – ed) will be resolved if Azerbaijan continues to distance itself from integration into the CSTO and the EAEU. There is also no prospect within the framework of European integration processes. I am sure that the resolution of the conflict is possible only with the goodwill of Russia. And Russia will not do this until it can completely rely on Azerbaijan. Of course, our country will never go against Russia and will not take its place alongside those who want problems for the Russian Federation. Russia’s political elite knows this. But politics is changeable. Therefore, the integration of our country into the CSTO and the EAEU would give Russia an incentive to achieve a resolution of the conflict. And Azerbaijan, of course, can put this item as a condition for entry. I am sure that the CSTO member states could convince Armenia to agree to a resolution of the conflict on the basis of compromises. And in general, if Russia wishes, the issue will be resolved, ”the expert is sure.
According to Razi Nurullaev, there is no enmity in Azerbaijan’s society towards either Russia or the Russians.
“People are concerned about the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, but still need a quiet life, a stable income. “Russia has a huge market and needs manpower. Of course there will be people and political forces that will try to provoke a protest, but these attempts will not be crowned with success. Once again, Azerbaijanis do not see the enemy in the face of Russia. ”
Our interlocutor recalled the statement of President Ilham Aliyev, who said that “the world is changing, new threats, new challenges appear.” “Under these conditions, of course, a lot depends on close cooperation with traditional partners. The format of our economic and political cooperation with the EAEU member countries is quite robust. “To go along the path of integration, of course, you need motivation,” said the head of state. Here is the keyword – “motivation”. For Baku, “motivation” is a process, integration, which will help the parties to the Karabakh conflict move from words to deeds.
Turkey and Russia are increasingly converging, including the non-international arena. We see this at least by the example of a similar assessment of events in Venezuela. Ankara has already expressed a desire to cooperate with the Eurasian Economic Union. And if Turkey moves closer to the EEU, this may also affect Azerbaijan’s decision. And, accordingly, if Azerbaijan enters into Eurasian integration unions, then Turkey will be in them, Razi Nurullayev said.
He notes that in addition to the bonuses related to the purchase of weapons at domestic prices, the opening of markets, the advantages of Eurasian integration are also in the fact that in Russia they will not look at Azerbaijanis as strangers:
“Azerbaijan will get a chance to realize its political and economic interests. The removal of customs barriers will lead to an increase in the supply of Azerbaijani products to Russian markets. As a result, a real economic boom will occur, new jobs will appear. ”